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  • 唐宜红,林发勤.内需的扩大是增加还是减少出口?——基于异质企业视角的理论模型和实证研究[J].国际商务研究,2016,30(2):5-17, 48    [点击复制]
  • TANG Yi-hong,LIN Fa-qin.[cn_title][J].INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RESEARCH,2016,30(2):5-17, 48   [点击复制]
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内需的扩大是增加还是减少出口?——基于异质企业视角的理论模型和实证研究
唐宜红,林发勤
0
摘要:
中国的贸易失衡表现为巨大的贸易顺差,有一种观点认为扩大内需可以减少出口,降低贸易失衡。本文在考虑企业异质性的基础上,对中国制造企业内需能否促进出口的作用进行了理论和实证分析。理论模型预测,如果企业生产率足够高,可以进行贸易,企业内需的增加总能促进出口数量和出口额的增加,且贸易成本的减小会促进这种效应。我们运用中国工业企业数据对这一推论进行了实证研究。我们首先利用半参数估计的Olley 和Pakes(OP)方法估计企业生产率,然后控制企业生产率、企业要素禀赋、行业固定效应、地区固定效应和企业所有制的影响进行计量分析。实证结果发现,出口企业内需的扩大显著促进了企业的出口,而且处于规模经济行业的企业的这种作用更为显著,东部地区企业和国有企业的国内销售对出口的作用也高于其他地区和其他企业。另外,本文对不同出口规模的企业应用分位数回归方法发现,企业出口规模越大,企业内需对出口的作用越显著。
关键词:  企业生产率  内需  出口  OP方法  分位数回归
DOI:
基金项目:本文受国家社科基金重大项目(项目编号:12&ZD097)、国家自然科学基金青年项目(项目编号:71503281)、“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”和“中央财经大学科研创新团队支持计划”资助。
Does The Expansion of Domestic Demand Increase or Decrease Exports? A Theoretical Model and Empirical Study with Firm Heterogeneity
TANG Yi-hong,LIN Fa-qin
Abstract:
China’s trade imbalance is witnessed as the huge export surplus. Some believe that the expansion of domestic demand can decrease exports and so the extent of China’s trade imbalance. This paper studies the impacts of domestic demand on promoting firm exports based on the heterogeneity of firms theoretically and empirically. In theory, the model predicts that as long as trade happens, the increase of domestic market will increase the firm’s exports in quantity and value and such effect will increase with the abating of trade costs. In this paper, we use Chinese industrial firm level data to do the empirical test for the proposition. We first use the Semi-parametric method of Olley and Pakes approach (OP) to estimate the reliable enterprise productivity, then to control for firm productivity level, factor endowments, industry fixed effects, regional fixed effects and ownership effects for the empirical analysis. We find that the expansion of domestic demand greatly promotes the exports. We find that such effect for those industries with scaled economy is even more significant; middle and western regions and state-owned enterprises show higher such effect than the other regions and ownerships. In addition, we use quantile regression technique to find that for larger enterprises, the effect of domestic demand on exporting is more significant.
Key words:  firm productivity  domestic demand  manufacturing exports  OP method  quantile regression

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