权证定价中基于 GA RCH模型族的波动率研究
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上海对外贸易学院

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F830. 91

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A Study of Volatility in Warrants Pricing Based on GARCHF amily Models
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    摘要:

    传统的权证定价方法假定标的证券收益率服从对数正态分布。但现实世界中标的证券收益率却具有尖峰厚尾分布,波动率的聚集性,证券市场的 “杠杆作用”等特征,因而传统定价结果可能导致偏差较大。为此,本文以随机波动率代替历史波动率的假设,消除金融时间序列的异方差性的影响;运用 GARCH模型族中的 3种模型(GARCH, EGARCH, GJ R-GARCH)对其进行参数估计,及权证定价对比;还分别就历史与随机波动率的差别、对称型与非对称型 GARCH模型的差别,以及理论与实际的差别进行了比较分析。结论得出这种差别的来源,并对此进行了探讨。

    Abstract:

    The traditional pricing methods of warrants assume that the yield of the underlying stock follows the log-normal probability distribution. But in reality it failed to take into account the experiential phenomenon of the financial time series, such as the cluster and fat tailor phenomena of the distribution;the aggregation of volatility;the leverage effect in securities market,etc,which may lead to pricevariancebe tween theory and practice.In this paper,historical volatility is replacedby stochastic volatility to remove the impact of conditional heteroscedasticity of financial time series. GARCHM odels(including GARCH,EGARCH,GJR-GARCH)will be used to estimate the parameters of theyield of the underlying stock and to price thewarrants. Furthermore,wewillanalyze and discuss the diferences between historical volatility and stochastic volatility; between symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models;and between theory and practice. In the conclusion,besides theimperfect theoretical model and the incomple tetrade systems,the speculativeness of China Stock Markets is the main reason of such price variance.

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徐溪.权证定价中基于 GA RCH模型族的波动率研究[J].国际商务研究,2009,(2):51-61, 68

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