中美贸易摩擦对两国经济影响分析
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(对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京 100029)

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肖志敏,对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院博士生,研究方向:国际贸易学;杨军,对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院教授。

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F740

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Analysis of Impacts of Sino-US Trade Frictions
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    摘要:

    利用 GTAP模型分别模拟分析 2018年初中美贸易摩擦的长期和短期经济影响,结果发现,中美两轮贸易加税全部实施,短期内美国对中国贸易逆差会减少约 295亿美元,美国对世界逆差减少 257亿美元,中国对世界顺差增加 108亿美元。此外,中国实际GDP、福利和就业率分别下降0.37%、503亿美元和 0.52%;美国分别下降0.28%、515亿美元和 0.38%。长期来看,中美宏观负面冲击在一定程度上均会得到缓解。在产业影响方面,中国弱夕阳产业、新兴产业部门分别在两轮贸易摩擦中受到较大冲击,农业部门普遍受益,夕阳产业部门影响不大,其中电子设备和机械设备等新兴产业产出均下降 1.14%。美国农业、夕阳产业在两轮贸易摩擦中负面影响较大,其中油菜籽和植物纤维产出分别下降 17.9%和 14.3%。总体而言,中美贸易摩擦对双方都带来较大冲击,而且其影响会随着摩擦的升级而扩大。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, we use the GTAP model to simulate long-run and short-run economic impacts of Sino-US trade frictions in early 2018. The scenario results show that, in the short run, the U.S. trade deficit with China is expected to decline by $29.5 billion, while the U.S. trade deficit with the world will be reduced by about $25.7 billion, China’s surplus will increase by $10.8 billion. In addition, to China, the real GDP growth rate, welfare and employment rate will reduce by 0.37%, $50.3 billion and 0.52%, respectively. Those of the U.S. fall by 0.28%, $51.5 billion and 0.38% respectively. However, in the long run, the negative shocks will be relieved. In the view of industries, the friction will cause serious loss for the output of quasi-old industries and emerging industries in China, especially for electronic equipment, machinery and equipment, whose output will all decrease by 1.14%. Chinese agriculture industries will benefit from this friction and old industries will suffer little. The United States’ agriculture and old industries, such as oil seeds and plant-based fibers will suffer more damage and their output will decrease by 17.9% and 14.3%, respectively. In general, Sino-US trade frictions will exert great negative effects on both sides, and the effect will be more deeply felt with the escalation of friction.

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肖志敏,杨军.中美贸易摩擦对两国经济影响分析[J].国际商务研究,2019,(5):22-32

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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-09-09
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