Abstract:In this paper, we use the GTAP model to simulate long-run and short-run economic impacts of Sino-US trade frictions in early 2018. The scenario results show that, in the short run, the U.S. trade deficit with China is expected to decline by $29.5 billion, while the U.S. trade deficit with the world will be reduced by about $25.7 billion, China’s surplus will increase by $10.8 billion. In addition, to China, the real GDP growth rate, welfare and employment rate will reduce by 0.37%, $50.3 billion and 0.52%, respectively. Those of the U.S. fall by 0.28%, $51.5 billion and 0.38% respectively. However, in the long run, the negative shocks will be relieved. In the view of industries, the friction will cause serious loss for the output of quasi-old industries and emerging industries in China, especially for electronic equipment, machinery and equipment, whose output will all decrease by 1.14%. Chinese agriculture industries will benefit from this friction and old industries will suffer little. The United States’ agriculture and old industries, such as oil seeds and plant-based fibers will suffer more damage and their output will decrease by 17.9% and 14.3%, respectively. In general, Sino-US trade frictions will exert great negative effects on both sides, and the effect will be more deeply felt with the escalation of friction.