The comprehensive and accurate measurement of CAFTA is of great significance to the construction of China’s free trade area and the formation of a new open pattern of comprehensive opening to the outside world. Based on the dual angle of intra and outside of FTA, the import demand model is revised. Robust System GMM and counterfactual estimation are used to estimate the import and export trade creation and transfer effect of CAFTA. The results show that CAFTA has trade creation effect on the import and export of China and ASEAN, and has no trade diversion effect; import and export trade growth effect of China is far greater than ASEAN, which is related to China’s rapid economic development and strong import demand; CAFTA is more conducive to China’s import trade, but because ASEAN has a relatively limited space for China to make profit, ASEAN has achieved great export benefits.