This paper decomposes the growth sources of China’s provinces from 1992 to 2022 based on growth accounting method. We find that the gap between China’s regional GDP per capita is narrowing. This convergence is mainly caused by the narrowing of the gap in human capital and total factor productivity. The gaps in capital input and share of labor force have not converged. Based on the cross-country comparison of various production factors and productivity, we find that China has transitioned from a capital-deficient stage to a capital abundant stage, resulting in a significantly lower rate of return on capital. Comparison with developing and developed economies at the same stage shows that China’s human capital and total factor productivity still need to be improved. Based on international trade data, we infer the implied productivity of export value added, and find that GDP per capita has the potential to converge to the export-implied productivity. Finally, based on the above findings, we suggest that China’s potential for economic growth lie primarily in three areas: improving the level and quality of education, promoting industrial upgrading and shifting to products and services of high export complexity, and reducing domestic trade barriers.