Abstract:Based on HS6-digit product data, we evaluate the resilience of China’s trade products in the industrial and supply chains (ISC) with the US. We find that in 2022, the fragility of China's imports to the US is mainly in upstream primary products such as corn and edible sorghum, as well as high-tech products such as vaccines, nuclear reactor parts, and aircraft. The fragility of exports to the US is mainly in downstream low-tech products such as video game controllers and festival entertainment products. Considering trade scale, technology intensity, and market competitiveness, we identify the industrial and supply chain gaps that China needs to focus on in Sino-US bilateral trade, including the import supply side gaps of bulk agricultural ISCs, the import supply side gaps of high-tech ISCs such as aerospace, biochemical immunity, nuclear power, and medical equipment, as well as the export demand side gaps of labor-intensive manufacturing ISCs such as computer manufacturing, entertainment and sports equipment, plastic catering utensils, furniture and home furnishings. Based on the dynamic evaluation from 2017 to 2022, the tariff policy of China and the US is the main factor affecting the stability of China’s bulk agricultural product imports. The supply of nuclear power and biochemical immunity from the US fluctuates greatly and has poor response capability. The entertainment and sports equipment is facing significant fluctuations in demand from the US market, with prominent fragility.