Abstract:The prohibitive tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have led to a short-term“shock”in bilateral goods trade between China and the U.S. On the surface, the reciprocal tariff policy stems from Trump’s inability to tolerate the U.S.’s long-standing massive trade deficit. However, its real purpose is to revitalize American manufacturing through“country-by-country”reciprocal tariff measures, with its sector-specific reciprocal tariff policy resembling infant industry protection policies. The reciprocal tariff rates calculated by the Trump administration are artificially exaggerated. Mainstream international literature studies indicate that nearly all tariffs the U.S. has imposed on Chinese goods are fully passed on to U.S. import prices. The reciprocal tariff policy will block China’s entrepot trade, drag down the economic growth of China and its related partners, disrupt global industrial chains and the multilateral free trade system, also hinder U.S. economic growth, intensify the relative“decoupling”of Sino-U.S. technology, amplify fluctuations in China’s capital markets, and cause a serious shrinkage in U.S. stock market valuations. China’s countermeasures include: unilateral measures such as retaliatory tariffs and export controls; bilateral active trade consultations to increase opportunities for tariff exemptions for more products; multilateral efforts to leverage the effectiveness of multilateral agreements and build a united front against Trump’s tariffs; industry associations needing to play a role in self-discipline, and firms needing to increase independent innovation; and the government expanding and optimizing visa-free policies and exit tax refund policies to consolidate economic and trade resilience and address complex changes in the external environment.