美国“对等关税”对全球经贸格局的影响及中国对策
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陈万灵,广州工商学院特聘教授,广东外语外贸大学国际经济贸易研究院教授,博士生导师,研究方向:国际贸易理论与政策;魏浩,北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院教授,博士生导师,研究方向:世界经济、国际贸易;周密,商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院美洲与大洋洲研究所研究员,研究方向:对外投资合作、服务贸易、国际规则与协议;黄建忠,上海对外经贸大学教授,博士生导师,研究方向:开放经济;屠新泉,对外经济贸易大学中国WTO 研究院教授,博士生导师,研究方向:世界贸易组织(WTO)、中美经贸关系、中国外贸政策;贾林紫嫣,对外经济贸易大学中国WTO 研究院研究助理,研究方向:世界贸易组织(WTO)。

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F740

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The Impact of the United States’ Reciprocal Tariff s on the Global Economic and Trade Structure and China’s Countermeasures
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    摘要:

    特朗普第二次就任美国总统不足百日,主导美国政府密集地实施了一系列加征关税措施,其中“对等关税”引起了世界贸易组织及国际社会的巨大反响。以“关税”为手段的贸易保护主义再次“疯狂”,滑入国际经贸领域的“特朗普主义”——集民粹主义、单边主义、霸权主义及孤立主义于一体,偏执地鼓吹美国“逆差”利益流失论,主张减少美国的国际义务和责任,甚至不惜破坏国际秩序。美国对所有贸易伙伴加征“对等关税”,对全球贸易格局产生了剧烈冲击,将导致全球经贸格局的深刻变化。一是重塑世界贸易格局。相关国家将加速调整与美国的贸易,强化各个区域内贸易联系,并重构跨区域贸易网络,促使供应链分布更加多元化,促使全球供应链布局从追求成本效率转向“安全优先”。二是重塑世界投资格局。在美国“对等关税”及其保护主义持续长期加持下,国际资本可能流向低关税率地区并加快回流美国。更大的可能是,美国之外的经济体之间相互配合与协同,形成贸易投资联系的新空间和新机制,推动形成经济全球化发展的新模式。三是美国针对中国加征的“对等”关税税率145% 达到前所未有的水平,主要通过引起全球贸易格局调整,从而影响中国外贸及其产业链供应链布局,可能对中国外经贸及开放型经济带来复杂而深远的影响。对此,中国应及时推出“中国应对方案”——积极在WTO 框架下诉诸争端解决机制,联合多个成员在WTO 平台共同发声谴责美国破坏多边主义规则的行为,推动没有美国参与的WTO 改革;深化区域经济合作,构建“去美元化”支付与结算体系,通过国内政策强化内生动力与产业韧性。

    Abstract:

    Trump’s second term as U.S. President lasted less than a hundred days, during which he led the U.S. government to implement a series of intensive tariff measures, with reciprocal tariffs causing significant repercussions in the World Trade Organization and the international community. Trade protectionism, using reciprocal tariffs as a tool, has once again become rampant, sliding into an American-style Trumpism—a blend of populism, unilateralism, hegemonism, and isolationism. It fanatically promotes the notion of U.S. deficit of interest losses, advocating for reducing America’s international obligations and responsibilities, even at the cost of disrupting international order. The U.S. imposing reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners has had a severe impact on the global trade landscape, leading to profound changes in the global economic and trade structure. Firstly,it reshapes the world trade pattern. Relevant countries will accelerate adjustments to their trade with the U.S.strengthen intra-regional trade links, and reconstruct cross-regional trade networks, promoting more diversified supply chain distribution and shifting the focus of global supply chains from cost efficiency to safety first.Secondly, it reshapes the world investment landscape. Under the prolonged influence of U.S. reciprocal tariffs and protectionism, international capital may flow to regions with lower tariff rates and accelerate its return to the U.S.More likely, economies outside the U.S. will cooperate and coordinate with each other, forming new spaces and mechanisms for trade and investment, driving the development of a new model for economic globalization. Thirdly,the tariff rate of 145% imposed by the U.S. on China has reached an unprecedented level. This primarily aims to adjust the global trade landscape, thereby impacting China’s foreign trade and its industrial chain and supply chain layout, potentially bringing complex and far-reaching effects to China’s foreign economic and trade activities as well as its open economy. In response, China should promptly introduce a Chinese Counter-Measure Plan—actively resorting to the dispute settlement mechanism under the WTO framework, working with multiple members to jointly condemn the U.S. for undermining multilateral rules on the WTO platform, promoting WTO reforms without U.S.participation. Secondly, it should deepen regional economic cooperation, building a de-dollarization payment and settlement system, and strengthen internal momentum and industrial resilience through domestic policies.

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陈万灵,魏浩,周密,黄建忠,屠新泉,贾林紫嫣.美国“对等关税”对全球经贸格局的影响及中国对策[J].国际商务研究,2025,(4):16-32

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-07
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