出口国内增加值率、产业数字化与外需隐含就业
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(1.天津外国语大学,天津 300270;2.南开大学,天津 300071)

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牛蕊,天津外国语大学国际商学院教授,研究方向:国际贸易理论与政策;常仕贤,南开大学经济学院博士研究生,研究方向:全球价值链。

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F746.12

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国家社科一般项目“数字经济视域下出口增加值率对外需隐含就业的影响研究”(项目编号:25BJL069)。


Industry Export Domestic Value-added Ratio, Industrial Digitalization and Implied Employment in External Demand
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    摘要:

    随着全球价值链地位的不断攀升,中国是否会面临“就业替代”及“劳动力技能偏向”问题值得关注,与此同时,中国正在经历以数字化为代表的产业变革。在此背景下,本文通过对出口国内增加值率进行分解,深入剖析随着生产分工地位的变化,产业数字化对不同技能劳动力外需隐含就业的影响。第一,在制造业中,数字化会加剧出口国内增加值率对外需隐含就业的替代效应;在生产性服务业中,数字化则强化出口国内增加值率对外需隐含就业的创造效应。第二,出口国内增加值率对外需隐含就业存在“劳动力技能偏向”性,替代效应主要作用于中低技能劳动力,且对低技能劳动力的影响更为显著;创造效应则集中于高技能劳动力。第三,进一步分解出口国内增加值率发现,就业替代效应在分工地位较低的行业中更为突出,而就业创造效应随分工地位提升逐渐减弱。此外,在制造业中,随着行业分工地位上升,产业数字化能够将外需隐含就业的替代效应逐步转化为创造效应;在生产性服务业中,随着分工地位提高,数字化进一步增强对中高技能劳动力的就业创造,同时缓解对低技能劳动力的就业替代。

    Abstract:

    As China continues to ascend in the global value chain, attention has been drawn to whether it will face issues of“employment substitution”and“skill bias in the labor force.”At the same time, the country is undergoing industrial transformation represented by digitalization. Against this backdrop, this paper decomposes the export value-added rate to thoroughly examine how industrial digitalization affects the foreign demand-embedded employment of workers with different skill levels, amid changes in the position of production division of labor. The findings are as follows: First, in the manufacturing sector, digitalization intensifies the substitution effect of the domestic value-added rate in exports on foreign demand-embedded employment, whereas in the producer services sector, digitalization strengthens the creation effect of the domestic value-added rate in exports on foreign demand-embedded employment. Second, the domestic value-added rate in exports exhibits a“skill bias”in its impact on foreign demand-embedded employment: the substitution effect primarily affects low-and medium-skilled workers, with a more pronounced impact on low-skilled labor, while the creation effect is concentrated on high-skilled labor. Third, further decomposition of the export value-added rate reveals that the employment substitution effect is more prominent in industries with lower positions in the division of labor, whereas the employment creation effect diminishes as the division of labor position rises. Moreover, in the manufacturing sector, as an industry’s division of labor position improves, industrial digitalization can gradually transform the substitution effect on foreign demand-embedded employment into a creation effect. In contrast, in the producer services sector, as the division of labor position rises, digitalization further enhances employment creation for high-and medium-skilled workers while mitigating employment substitution for low-skilled workers.

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牛蕊,常仕贤.出口国内增加值率、产业数字化与外需隐含就业[J].国际商务研究,2026,(1):94-106

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-14
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