中美大豆贸易:虚拟资源与粮食安全
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(1.吉林财经大学,吉林 长春 130117;2.南京财经大学,江苏 南京 210023;3.哥廷根大学,德国,哥廷根,37073)

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F742

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吉林省教育厅人文社科优秀青年项目“吉林省黑土地保护预测研究”(项目编号:JJKH20260477SK);吉林财经大学博研培优专项项目“粮食安全视角下东北黑土地保护预测研究”(项目编号:2024TS019)。


China-U.S. Soybean Trade: Virtual Resources and Food Security
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    摘要:

    中国人均自然资源占有量不足,粮食消费需求的刚性增长与自然环境对粮食生产的刚性约束将使粮食在长期内处于紧平衡的状态。大豆的大量进口相当于进口了大量虚拟水土资源,减少了保障粮食安全对生态的压力,为城市化和非农发展提供了资源支撑。本文研究发现,中美两国大豆市场已经整合,中国大豆价格与美国大豆价格趋同;2022年从美国净进口大豆所需中国种植面积为 2.2亿亩,约是吉林省和河南省耕地面积总和,占中国耕地面积的 15%;所需中国水资源当量占农业用水的比例在 20%以上,仅略低于工业用水量;土地资源自给率呈大幅下降态势,2016年降至 28%;尽管中美大豆价格已经整合,但是资源利用效率没有收敛。现阶段中国没有如此大规模水土资源的额外来源,也无法从其他国家获得与美国等量的大豆供给,因而不具备完全放弃从美国进口大豆的条件。中美大豆市场的整合也使得两国大豆市场形成相互依赖关系,减缓了中美在政治和经济等领域对抗的紧张度,促进了国际和平发展。

    Abstract:

    China’s insufficient endowment of natural resources, the continuous growth in demand for food consumption and the strict constraints imposed by the natural resources on food production will keep China's food security in a tight balance in the long term. The massive import of soybeans in China means the import of a large amount of virtual soil and water resources, balancing production and ecology. This paper finds that the soybean markets of China and the United States have been integrated, and China’s soybean priceshave converged with those of the U.S.;the net soybean imports from the U.S. in 2022 required China’ s cultivated land is 220 million mu, which is the combined area of arable land in Jilin and Henan provinces and accounts for 15% of China’s arable land; required China’s water resources equivalent proportion of agricultural water use in more than 20%, which is only slightly lower than the amount of water used for industrial purposes; the self-sufficiency rate of land resources has shown a significant decline in the trend, and in 2016 has fallen to 28%. Though the U.S. and Chinese soybean prices have integrated, there has been no convergence in the efficiency of resource utilization. At this stage, China does not have additional sources of soil and water resources on such a large scale, nor is it able to obtain an equivalent supply of soybeans from other countries to that of the US, and thus is not in a position to completely abandon the import of soybeans from the U.S. In order to guarantee sustainable food security and expand the security horizon, we should adhere to the strategy of opening up to the outside world, make good use of two markets and two types of resources, practice rewilding to improve ecological resilience, upgrade the level of agricultural technology, and comprehensively improve the purchasing power of the country. According to the theory of Kant (1795), the integrated soybean market between China the U.S. may have the pacifying effects, reducing the political and economic tensions between the two countries.

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刘畅,黄莹莹,于晓华.中美大豆贸易:虚拟资源与粮食安全[J].国际商务研究,2026,(2):42-53

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-13
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