中国对外贸易转型发展的动因、挑战与突破路径
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(1.中国人民大学,北京 100872;2.山东财经大学,山东 济南 250014)

作者简介:

王孝松,中国人民大学经济学院教授,研究方向:国际贸易;李彤,山东财经大学经济学院讲师,研究方向:国际贸易。

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F752 / F742

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教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“百年变局下的世界经济及中国与世界经济关系研究”(项目编号:23JJD790013);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“美国经贸政策重大调整对全球产业链供应链的冲击与应对研究”(项目编号:25JZD019)。


The Motivation, Challenge and Breakthrough Path of China’s Foreign Trade Transformation and Development
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    摘要:

    在世界经济增长放缓、地缘政治冲突加剧、国际经贸规则深度重构的背景下,对外贸易转型发展已成为我国推进高水平对外开放、建设贸易强国的重要命题。本文从“以开放促改革”的制度逻辑视角出发,在梳理我国外贸历史成就与发展阶段转换的基础上,系统剖析了驱动外贸转型的多重动因及其面临的现实制约,并提出突破路径。研究表明,我国外贸转型是由动态比较优势变化的内生动因、大国博弈加剧的外生动因以及国内对高质量制度供给的迫切需求共同驱动的。我国外贸转型仍面临潜在优势向现实竞争力转化不足、价值链高端环节控制力偏弱、大国竞合加剧与国际不确定性上升、深度开放背景下制度供给能力不足等多重约束。在此基础上,本文提出稳步扩大制度型开放、优化市场布局与供应链网络、优化贸易方式与扩大高质量进口、发展服务贸易与数字贸易、加强自主创新以及积极参与全球经济治理等外贸转型突破路径,进而推动我国对外贸易由规模扩张导向加快转向质量效益导向,实现由贸易大国向贸易强国的跃升。

    Abstract:

    Against the background of slowing global growth, intensifying geopolitical conflicts, and a profound restructuring of international economic and trade rules, the transformation of China’s foreign trade has become a major issue in advancing high-standard opening up and building China into a strong trading nation. From the institutional logic of promoting reform through opening up, this paper reviews the historical achievements and stage transition of China’s foreign trade, systematically examines the multiple drivers of its transformation as well as the major constraints it faces, and then proposes corresponding breakthrough paths. The study finds that China’s foreign trade transformation is jointly driven by three forces: endogenous drivers arising from shifts in dynamic comparative advantage, exogenous drivers associated with intensifying major-power competition, and the growing domestic demand for high-quality institutional supply. At the same time, the transformation process remains constrained by the insufficient conversion of potential advantages into actual competitiveness, weak control over high value-added segments of global value chains, rising major-power rivalry and international uncertainty, and inadequate institutional supply under deeper opening up. On this basis, the paper proposes a set of policy paths for advancing foreign trade transformation, including steadily expanding institutional opening up, optimizing market diversification and supply-chain networks, upgrading trade patterns while expanding high-quality imports, developing services trade and digital trade, strengthening indigenous innovation, and actively participating in global economic governance. These efforts will help accelerate the shift of China’s foreign trade from a scale-expansion orientation to a quality-and-efficiency orientation, thereby facilitating the transition from a major trading nation to a strong trading nation.

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王孝松,李彤.中国对外贸易转型发展的动因、挑战与突破路径[J].国际商务研究,2026,(3):1-12

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-11
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