从特朗普 1.0到 2.0:全球贸易格局空间重构与中国因应
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(1. 南京大学,江苏 南京 210093;2.南京财经大学,江苏 南京 210023)

作者简介:

张二震,南京大学长三角经济社会发展研究中心教授,研究方向:开放型经济的理论与实践;张晓磊,南京财经大学国际经贸学院副教授,研究方向:国际贸易与产业经济。

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F74 / D82

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金青年项目“全球价值链重构视阈下中国高标准 FTA网络构建战略研究”(项目编号:23CJY077);江苏高校哲学社会科学重大项目“全球供应链空间重构的动力机制、效率损失与中国对策研究”(项目编号:2022SJZD056);江苏省社会科学基金青年项目“江苏出口企业积极应对全球供应链重构的对策研究”(项目编号:23EYC005)。


From Trump 1.0 to 2.0: Spatial Restructuring of the Global Trade Landscape and China’s Responses
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    摘要:

    近年来,以美国为代表的逆全球化势力滥用关税制裁、脱钩断链、贸易封锁等手段,导致全球贸易空间格局加速向网络碎片化、贸易俱乐部化、大国脱钩化等方向退化。本文系统梳理了特朗普 1.0、拜登和特朗普 2.0任期期间美国贸易政策的继承和转变,并基于全球主要经济体贸易数据,总结了从特朗普 1.0到 2.0任期之间的全球贸易空间结构演进趋势,发现全球贸易格局呈现南北割裂化趋势,美国进口贸易空间结构呈现去中国化和友岸化趋势,中国则呈现去西方化和“一带一路”化趋势,中美之间的贸易脱钩呈现非对称化趋势。此外,从美国的贸易政策动向及主要经济体间的贸易格局空间重构趋势看,在特朗普 2.0任期内,中国在美洲将面临更加严峻的区域贸易网络去中国化风险,在欧洲将会面临新型贸易规则的泛政治化风险,在亚太地区会面临贸易投资网络的低效化风险。为有效应对上述风险,本文建议中国培育灵活多元的全球贸易网络,加快构建以中国为核心的全球自由贸易与投资网络体系;打造开放活跃的全球创新网络,实现科创要素的 “引进来” 与 “走出去” 协同并进;构建安全高效的贸易服务体系,分散中美间高度不确定的贸易摩擦风险;倡议公正合理的全球治理体系,与广大发展中经济体携手维护公平发展权益。

    Abstract:

    In recent years, anti-globalization forces led by the United States have unilaterally resorted to tariff sanctions, industrial decoupling, supply chain severance, and trade blockades. Such policies have severely disrupted the multilateral trading order and accelerated the deterioration of the spatial architecture of world trade toward network fragmentation, the emergence of trade-based clubs, and great-power decoupling. This paper systematically traces the continuities and shifts in U.S. trade policy across the Trump 1.0, Biden, and Trump 2.0 administrations. Drawing on bilateral trade data for the world’s major economies, it maps the structural evolution of global trade between the two Trump administrations. The analysis identifies a widening North-South divide within global trade patterns. U.S. import patterns feature de-Sinicization and friend-shoring tendencies, while China’s trade shows reduced reliance on Western markets and deeper integration with Belt and Road partners. Bilateral trade decoupling between China and the U.S. displays asymmetric characteristics. Further analysis of evolving U.S. policy signals and the spatial restructuring of trade networks among major economies suggests that, during the Trump 2.0 presidency, in the Americas, China will confront intensified de-Sinicization pressure; in Europe, China will face the politicization of emerging trade norms; and in the Asia-Pacific, China will encounter an erosion of efficiency in regional trade and investment networks. To mitigate these risks, the paper advances four policy recommendations. First, China should cultivate diversified and resilient global trade networks and construct a global free trade and investment system anchored in China. Second, China should foster an open and dynamic global innovation network that synchronizes the outward diffusion and inward absorption of innovation resources. Third, China should build a secure and efficient trade service architecture to disperse the risks arising from the heightened uncertainty of Sino-U.S. economic friction. Fourth, China should champion a fair and equitable global governance regime in partnership with the broader developing world to safeguard common development interests.

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张二震,张晓磊.从特朗普 1.0到 2.0:全球贸易格局空间重构与中国因应[J].国际商务研究,2026,(5):1-11

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-09
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