Abstract:This paper analyzes the evolution of U.S. trade policy over the past three administrations and its underlying causes, and assesses future trends. On this basis, it discusses the impact on China and proposes response strategies. The study finds that the trade policies of all three administrations (Trump 1.0, the Biden administration, and Trump 2.0) exhibit pronounced characteristics of“deglobalization”, yet differ in overall approach and policy instruments. In terms of the intensity of deglobalization, the Biden administration, Trump 1.0, and Trump 2.0 represent moderate, radical, and extreme variants, respectively. These differences stem from varying domestic policy objectives and attitudes toward the existing international order. Constrained by domestic economic conditions, the actual extremity of Trump 2.0’s policy implementation falls considerably short of its rhetoric. Furthermore, the 2026 U.S. midterm elections will serve as a watershed moment, after which Trump 2.0 will face greater constraints. In the long run, amid domestic political polarization, U.S. trade policy will oscillate between moderate and extreme forms of deglobalization. Changes in U.S. trade policy will affect China’s economy. This paper proposes China’s response strategies from the perspective of“coordinating domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles”. Specifically, this entails three forms of coordination: coordinating domestic economic development with China-U.S. economic and trade relations, coordinating opening up with participation in economic globalization, and coordinating the domestic circulation with the international circulation.