发展中国家主权债务违约——基于外部债权人视角的综述
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(1.中国社会科学院大学,北京 102488;2.中国社会科学院,北京 100732)

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刘禹,中国社会科学院大学全球与区域国别学院博士生,研究方向:世界经济;徐奇渊(通信作者),中国社会科学院美国所研究员,研究方向:世界经济。

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F811.5

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Sovereign Debt Defaults in Developing Countries: A Review from the Perspective of External Creditors
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    摘要:

    本文围绕发展中国家主权债务违约问题,从异质性外部债权人的视角切入,围绕“外部债权人如何识别违约风险、如何度量并承受损失、如何选择债务处置工具与谈判策略”这一主线对现有文献进行了梳理。比较了不同类型债权人在主权债务违约风险识别中的差异与关联,同时剖析了违约冲击对债权人造成的影响,以及各类债权人针对该风险所采取的债务处置策略。尤其针对双边债权人中的新兴债权人——中国,探讨了其对发展中国家贷款的具体实践模式。基于上述文献梳理,进一步识别了现有研究在特定债权人视角下的国别风险预警与资产组合风险评估、生产性贷款影响主权债务风险及违约成本的理论机制阐释等方面存在的不足,并在此基础上提炼政策含义。

    Abstract:

    This paper reviews the literature on sovereign debt defaults in developing countries from the perspective of heterogeneous external creditors, focusing on the central questions of how external creditors identify default risks, measure and bear losses, and choose debt resolution instruments and negotiation strategies. It compares the differences and interconnections among various types of creditors in identifying sovereign default risks, examines the impacts of default shocks on creditors, and analyzes the debt resolution strategies adopted by different creditor groups in response to such risks. Particular attention is given to China, an emerging bilateral creditor, with a discussion of the specific practices and modalities of its lending to developing countries. Building on this review, the paper further identifies several important gaps in the existing literature, including insufficient research on country-level risk early warning and portfolio risk assessment from the perspective of specific creditors, as well as inadequate theoretical clarification of the mechanisms through which productive lending affects sovereign debt risks and default costs. On this basis, the paper derives corresponding policy implications.

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刘禹,徐奇渊.发展中国家主权债务违约——基于外部债权人视角的综述[J].国际商务研究,2026,(5):25-35

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-09
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