This paper employs input-output analysis and a stochastic computable general equilibrium model to measure and simulate the resilience of China’s semiconductor industrial chain under uncertain conditions, and arrives at the following key conclusions. First, the upstream and midstream segments of the industrial chain feature conspicuous shortcomings, while the processing advantages of downstream sectors are on the decline. Second, China still acts as a supplier rather than an end consumer in the global semiconductor division of labor. Among the objectives of establishing, extending and upgrading the industrial chain, industrial upgrading poses the greatest challenges. Third, the industrial chain has developed initial resilience to external shocks, and China’s countermeasures of imposing export restrictions on silicon, gallium, germanium and related materials are targeted and effective. Fourth, both efficient market mechanisms and proactive government governance should be integrated for the upstream and downstream links, whereas the market shall play the decisive role in resource allocation within the midstream segment. To this end, the policy recommendations are put forward: First, leverage the institutional strengths of the new nationwide system to intensify original and pioneering scientific and technological research. Second, consolidate enterprises’principal role in technological innovation and foster an efficient innovation ecosystem. Third, cultivate high-end talent reserves to further elevate innovative capacity. Fourth, advance high-level two-way opening-up and coordinate the collaborative layout of domestic and global industrial chains.